INCYLong · Open
Incyte Corp
Long. Strong financials, profitability, and momentum at a fair price.
Every call, kept
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MULong · Open
Micron Technology Inc
Long. Excellent underlying financials, profitability, and growth in a lucrative industry.
NFLXLong · Open
Netflix Inc
Long. Solid financials paired with excellent profitability and growth at a historically undervalued price point.
Research
PINS
Pinterest: two accounting distortions, one direction
Pinterest's 2024 net income exceeded its EBITDA, possible only with a positive tax line, in this case a $1.6bn deferred tax asset valuation allowance release. Stock-based compensation, which exceeds free cash flow in most years, flatters the cash flow statement separately. Both of the metrics investors would value PINS on are overstated, and ROIC still fails to clear WACC.
FTNT
Fortinet: the market is pricing nine quarters of deceleration as a trend, not a transition
Fortinet has earned ROIC above WACC every year since 2017, by more than ten points since 2019, with top-decile margins and ten straight profitable years. The shares have de-rated since 2024 on decelerating service growth. The reverse DCF implies 19.61%, which the business has consistently exceeded.
APP
Applovin: an excellent business priced for a rate no ad-tech firm has sustained
AppLovin earns an 80% ROIC against a 20% cost of capital, and at $692 the market is capitalizing that as permanent. A reverse DCF implies 34.17% sustained growth, above even the sell-side's bull case and above anything ad-tech has held through a cycle. Avoid it on price, not on quality.