How I work

• I publish equity research notes and keep a public record of every call in them. There are 20 positions in the record, 0 of them closed.
• Losing calls stay up, in the same type as the winners.A track record that only shows the good ones is not a track record.
• Nothing is edited after publication.The build fingerprints every note and refuses to compile if the text changes. A change of view goes in a dated update underneath.
• Every note opens with the same four thingsThe view, the thesis, the assumption it rests on, and what would prove me wrong. If I cannot state the disproof, it is not a thesis.
• Returns are measured against the S&P 500 or the STOXX Europe 600Over exactly the holding period of the call. The index level at entry is stored so you can check it.
• A hit beat its benchmark, not merely zero.A short is scored on the inverse of the price move. An avoid is a call not taken, so it stays out of the hit rate and the averages; it is scored separately, on what passing on it was worth against holding the index instead.
• Prices are stamped with the date they were taken.If that date is more than 10 days old the page says so.
• Closing a position requires a post-mortemWhat happened, what I got right, what I got wrong, and whether the thesis played out or I was right for the wrong reason.
• Personal research. Not investment advice. Assume I may hold anything discussed here: every position is in the record. Nothing here takes account of anybody's circumstances but my own.